The case for regime change in Iran - If Trump settles for the men in charge now, he’ll be making a mistake.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is unlikely to hoist the white flag of surrender in the near future. After weeks of devastating attacks by the U.S. and Israel on the regime’s assets, including the elimination of the leadership, the Tehran regime has not budged. The U.S. and Israel have inflicted severe damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, its ballistic missiles, and its launching pads, as well as on key production facilities that maintain Iran’s military infrastructure. The theocratic regime in Tehran is defiantly and arrogantly rejecting a deal President Trump has offered the Iranian regime to end the war. To effectively win this war with Iran, the allies must bring about a genuine regime change.
Iran, known as Persia in former times, is not an ordinary Middle Eastern state. Most Middle Eastern Arab states are artificial colonial countries created by Britain and France under the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916. Iran/Persia, however, has occupied its current territory for centuries.
Those who expected Iran to relent following the painful strikes were mistaken. Perhaps the current regime will collapse in time, and the Iranian opposition will emerge. Similar to Hamas and Hezb’allah, groups that were defeated by all military measures, the Iranian regime still claims victory merely because it has survived. By staying in power despite heavy external pressure, sanctions, and internal unrest, the regime views its endurance — gained, in large measure, through strong repression, loyal security forces, and managing a transition to a new supreme leader — as success.
For Israel in particular, this theocratic and leading global state sponsor of terrorism must be reduced to a position whereby it can no longer threaten the Jewish state. The existential threat that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has posed to Israel for the last 47 years was amply expressed by the repeated pledges of the ayatollahs — the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — to “wipe Israel off the map.” The regime’s survival, however damaged, seems to be able to keep Israelis running to bomb shelters at all hours of the day and night.
Insofar as the U.S. is concerned, Iran’s alliances with China and Russia, along with its threats to American interests in the region, are, geopolitically speaking, sufficient reasons to act. More importantly, the potential threat Iran’s ballistic missiles pose to the continental U.S. has proven to be real, considering the recent launch of an Iranian long-range rocket that reached the U.S. base in Diego Garcia. Moreover, North Korea’s dictator has been providing the Iranian regime with all the resources needed to develop effective long-range missiles able to reach the America. Considering that the Iranian regime possesses the ability to produce a nuclear bomb, and just a few weeks ago was close to achieving it (based on its having enriched 970 pounds of uranium to 60%, which could reach 90% in short order), the U.S. saw the threat as imminent. The U.S. and Israel regard the survival of the regime, with its Basij and Revolutionary Guards forces intact, as a harbinger of future danger for the U.S. and the civilized world.
None of America’s demands are likely to be accepted by the current leadership of the Islamic Republic. The Iranians are not going to give up their missile production, and they will not give up on their quest for a nuclear bomb. With the know-how the regime has accumulated (assuming that some of their nuclear scientists have survived) and with Iran’s nuclear cooperation with Kim Jong-un, the Korean dictator, as well as with China and Russia, even if the regime agreed to surrender its 970 pounds of 60% refined uranium, they would eventually obtain it secretly from the North Koreans. This fanatical Islamist regime will march toward a bomb, unless it is removed.
Additionally, the Islamic Republic of Iran will not abandon its Shiite proxies; Hezb’allah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Iraqi Shiite militias. Nor, for that matter, are they going to end cooperation with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. They will count on their collective tenacity to overwhelm the American negotiators. They know that President Trump wants a deal, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, because the November midterm elections are on the horizon, and if gas is at $5 a gallon, Americans might turn away from the Republicans.
Only a resolute President Trump, pushing ahead on his promise to bring relief to the Iranian people, might expedite the fall of the hated Iranian regime. That would be a victory that not only benefits the people of Iran and the region as a whole, but such a victory will also translate into a win at the midterm ballot box.
If Trump settles for a deal stripped of the key elements of his 15 points to declare victory and end the war, it will be meaningless and dangerous. It would leave the Iranian regime standing firm, able to rebuild its strength, including its nuclear facilities and its ballistic missiles arsenal.
Worse yet, such a deal would be a betrayal of Israel, a loyal and dependable ally, and would extinguish the hopes of freedom for the Iranian people.